Nigeria in 2014: Political pressure and ethno-religious bigotry will increase

It’s not reasonable to observe the spate of open letters flying about in Nigeria in 2013 and think such attitude will fall in 2014. In fact, open letters and associated political forces will continue to generate heat as the country draws closer to the 2015 general election. Apart from the five governors of the ruling PDP defecting to the opposition APC on Nov. 26 2013, on Dec. 18, the ruling party lost 37 parliamentary seats to the same opposition party. This is a collection of events some analyst call “things fall apart”. Nigeria’s political history and elections since democracy has generally been characterized with violence and it will take a miracle for such to quiet down going by the situation of things in 2013. The ruling party and the president will continue to face challenges and the greatest-ever will be in 2014. It is not only in Nigeria, similar issues are expected across Africa and we will recollect that even South African’s President Jacob Zuma was booed and jeered by South Africans during Mandel’s burial ceremony – a worrying sign for his African National Congress (ANC) as it heads for polls in about six months. Many Nigerians and also friendly foreigners agree that the country is facing various problems on political stability. Analysts see the major problem as that of national unity in an atmosphere of the rising profile of ethnicity and religious bigotry. The ongoing deadly ethnic-religious clashes in some parts of Nigeria and renewed militancy and oil theft in the southern Niger delta (put at between 100,000 (Chatham House) to 250,000 (Nuhu Ribadu Report) barrels of oil a day) continue to amplify the political divide thereby giving room for more heat in the polity. 2014 will not only be a critical year for INEC (who is expected to receive buoyant support in the 2014 budget), political parties are expected to hold their national conventions to choose their parties presidential candidates in preparation for the 2015 elections. We should be interested and look forward to how the commission will respond to emerging electioneering issues in 2014 with Ekiti and Osun governorship elections serving as a litmus test for the 2015 election. Not to forget to add that 2014 also marks 100years since the country's Northern and Southern protectorate was merged into one Nigeria in 1914 (i.e. the centenary). This will call for renewed global attention on Nigeria to see how the political climate is changing or challenging the history and aspiration of the people.

Read the full article here: 10 Economic Highlights to look out for in Nigeria in 2014. Want to share you thoughts on the Nigerian Economy in 2014? You can drop your comment below or continue the discussion with on twitter Tweet to @seunoyeniran

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What the Elections Hold For Nigeria: Gloom or Glory (An Economist View)

From the greatest of economic optimism to the highest forecast of gloom, Nigeria is always tossed in between when looked through the knowledge prism of intellectuals around the globe. Global Trend 2025 Report forecast Nigeria to be part of the ‘arc of instability’ due to its youthful age structure and rapidly growing population. This ‘youth bulge’ is expected to remain on rapid growth trajectories and according to this report, unemployment conditions must change ‘dramatically’ to avert instability and state failure. This report holds element of truth, but there is greater optimism. My personal findings working with young people in Nigeria and been a youth myself in my mid-twenties, I have come to understand more fundamentally that the youth, as much as they hold the ability to ruin the nation as seen in the case of Niger Delta militias, they also have the capacity to transform the Nigerian economy. A phenomenon I call the ‘Y-index’ (i.e. youth index). Another intellectual, Okonjo Iweala calls it ‘demographic dividends’. Together with growing technology in the area of telecommunication and the Nigerian Banking reforms (see figure below), the impact the telecoms industry is playing in the banking sector is now so obvious. This provides a bouyant financial sector for core economic activity. Nigeria is on its pathway to growth and that is more so now than ever before. Approaching elections, due in April 2011 (couple of weeks time), is likely to usher in a period of political instability that will probably see a significant increase in political tension. This is the opinion of a school of thought,but on the other hand, we as a nation have become wiser, thus this political tension can be averted or at least minimized in order for Nigeria to attain the required economic growth as a nation. Again, the youth has arole to play in achieving this. Economic expansion will be buoyed by robust performance in the non-oil sector. Real GDP growth is expected to average over 6.5% in 2011-15, provided political tension do not alter these forecasts, Nigeria can be seen to be on its path to economic glory.

Looking Beyond the BRICS: Nigeria, Among the Emerging Emerging Markets 'Frontiers'

Key Data: GDP growth: 5.8%, GDP: $248bn (PPP: $397bn), Inflation: 11.2%, Population: 155.2m, GDP per head: $1,600 (PPP: $2,560).

The biggest concentration of overlooked markets is in Africa (which is in many ways an overlooked continent). In 2011, according to The Economist (2010), there will be a great deal about the unexpected merits of ‘frontier’ economies such as Nigeria who are poorer and riskier than the emerging BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China). Multinationals intending to invest in foreign countries will be wise to do so now in order to enjoy location economies while leveraging the valuable skills in Nigeria to increase profitability and profit growth. Based on my recent work, I'll recommend two major non-oil sectors for profitable investment: Agricultural sector and the film industry (Nollywood).
Although with very high volatility, moving into Nigeria can provide a foreign company the needed vitality. Companies that move first will enjoy lots of advantages. They will be able to forge deals with aggressive young companies, strike infrastructure deals with local governments. And they can shape the tastes of future consumers. Companies that succeed in these neglected emerging markets are not only putting down roots in the world’s most fertile soil. They are giving themselves a chance to establish business habits (learning experiences/curves) for years to come. Many reforms are on-going in Nigeria and many is still to come. After all, there are hardly easy markets.

Seun Oyeniran


Reference
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