Africans, don't give up on Africa

Although my wife is Canadian because she was born here; her ancestral roots traces back to the West Indies and ultimately Africa. My wife studying history and eventually furthering in Modern Slavery make both of us a team for Africa emancipation. If we're not talking about promoting African values in our Canadian context, we are busy putting the lines together about Africa: the news, reports, economic analysis, the society, environment etc. So when she sent me an email containing a link to the set of pictures below during one of her research, I wasn't at all surprised. The pictures were published on CNN’s Inside Africa website with the caption: “Stunning photos show Africa through African eyes”. The publication was part of the the IBM Research Africa 12 Global Research Lab Project

My wife naturally connected with the stories that followed each picture because of her education and of course the many trips we have made together into Africa and African related attraction around the world. For me, however, I connected with those pictures because I saw myself in them. They told my story.

The house I was born in Mushin Lagos, Nigeria was just across the railway line like this. Since I was born  up till date, I’ve never seen a single train pass through. My parents never stop telling tales of how busy that railway line used to be.	Yet in other places, trains are working. Railway workers strike and others leave the few working ones over crowded like the one seen above.
We fetched water like this. I remember lifting big buckets on my head on very long distances. And you just have to fill up those big drums stored behind the kitchen doors.	Africans are extremely creative. We make something out of nothing. Don’t pity Africa, work with Africa! We have a thriving creative economy, youth bulginess.
Yet we have hope. The future is not ahead, the future is now. When I was a kid we soil ourselves like this young child, telling ourselves we are eating food as we put this dusts on our chin. We have not lost hope. Its this hand-in-soil that has strengthened our creativity.	They say religion has been our bane. But who could I have been if I had not known the Lord Jesus Christ. Because of our faith our communities are built on tenets of respect and love. Its this foundation that allows people like myself to thrive all around the world.
While many people know this young boy made a pair of “glasses”, only very few people knew what he made it of and what the process of making it require. I know because that boy was just exactly like me! we made those funny looking pair of “glasses” out of table-top calendar spine. Creativity is in our DNA! This is Africa!!	This picture passed the strongest message to me. What are we doing to secure the future? Or better still, what am I doing? I see Bill Gates and his earnest effort and I say to myself yes, this is the way to go! We have to secure the health of our future generations.

This is Africa. We are Africans. If we have come this far why go back? Our faith has been strengthened because daily, we face challenges that forces us to exercise them. We have experienced mountain moving faith as we see mountains of poverty and economic hardship sublime. We are hard working and we also believe in honest dealings even though corruption is fast making this assertion an illusion. We have grown because we strengthened our communities by caring for one another in a most unique way. These is Africa, where you can have breakfast, lunch and dinner in the house of three different people you met on the street. We take care of our own, we don’t let one another down. This is the Africa I have grown into from the 1980s into the 2000s. All the evil that has happened in recent times must be be reversed. We will not sit and look at them take away our glorious future. We will reverse it. We will fight it with our words across the diaspora.

We are not where we want to be, yet, we are not where we used to be. The road is still very far. We must not allow idiosyncratic people who have crept into our communities deny us of our glorious destination. We must not fail to connect with our core competences, build on our strength and secure future generations. I personally don’t expect a sudden change but one thing I’m sure of is that: myself and many others who share similar vision will not give up. Africa will arise to take its rightful place among committee of nations. It has already begin to happen, the chart below shows Nigeria is the 3rd fastest growing economy in 2014 and hence a major destination for investment (Wealth Professionals Magazine Issue 2.2 pp8,14). By 2050, global economic dynamics would also have shifted in Africa’s favour. Keep in mind that this are assumptions and pre-included are very high risks factors. If we continue to work on reducing these risk factors: ensure political stability, a stable society, we can exceed these growth estimates by very wide margin.

Its time Africa, We must not give up!

Youths Education, welfare and Personal Development: Empirical Evidences from Nigerian University

My Country, My Heart and My Prayers on My Birthday

Seun Oyeniran

Its been about 11months since I wrote on this blog and its about the same time since I deactivated my Facebook page. Facebook is extremely useful to me so I miss being there a lot and I miss writing on my blog too. However the 11months break was useful because it provided me ample opportunity to look into various other issue beckoning for my attention especially since I returned to Nigeria after my MSc degree in UK (so I didn't regret the social media break at all and I may go on a few more breaks before coming on back finally soon ;). Today is my birthday and I'm reviewing and evaluating how I've spent my 28years in life. Reviewing, yes, but thinking more - becoming more less asleep - and out of my very busy schedule I decide to make some time to scribble out these few lines; first to connect back with all of you my friends; to tell you that I'm well; and to share my heart on various issues that remain pressing since I returned back to my dear country.

Among the thousand and one issues ravaging my mind right now, my dear country, Nigeria, happens to be top on the list. Not only because I am a Nigerian, but because from my little travel across continents, I have come to see and appreciate how beautiful Nigeria is. Through these same trips, my heart has also been remarkably enlightened by the challenges we continue to face as a Nation. This is the core of my burden. I increasingly find it hard to understand how Nigeria's issues have become so terrible. I keep wondering how a country termed by a WIN-Gallup poll as the second most religious country in the World with 93% of the people tagging themselves as believers (second to Ghana at 96%) continue to rank high in corruption and her people continue to witnesses increasing poverty levels like that which has never been seen before. 

Source: http://www.transparency.org/country#NGA

My heart is worried that while many countries transformed the lots of their people, lifting them out of penury through the discovery of oil, this same process has resulted in worse condition for our people. Gelb (1988) in Ismail (2010) IMF working paper WP/10/103 finds that Ecuador, Iran, Nigeria and Trinidad and Tobago went through the Dutch disease, mainly due to a decline in Agriculture, over the first and second oil booms of 1972–81, while Algeria, Indonesia and Venezuela went through a strengthening of their non-oil tradables. Oil will continue to be a problem for Nigeria because the volatility of the supply-price nexus of the commodity in the international market that will continue to result in volatility and instability as Nigeria's economic indices and revenue generation is strongly connected to the export of oil. The need to focus not only on agriculture (through the agricultural transformation agenda), but also on other sectors such as manufacturing and services is now more important in a modern economy where every country has to maximize its comparative advantage in our globalizing world. Even the reforms that worked for countries like China has hit gridlock in Nigeria; our corrupt and ignorant nature being one of the major hinderances. While the Investment Climate and Enterprise Survey carried out by World Bank puts Nigeria in an in-between condition of hope with many underlying issues to be addressed and several reports testifying Nigeria's growth (in fact IMF 2011 Regional Annex estimates 7.4% growth for 2010), yet youth unemployment and lack of jobs sinks down this hope as it public and private sectors are greeted by a demographic progression that continues to elude the knowledge frame of those in positions of authority. Lack of key knowledge of Nigeria's demographic dynamics continue to manifest itself across various policy making institutions across the nation. For example, it has already been established that the causes of instability in certain states such as Nigeria is youth 'bulginess'. A British Council Next Generation report captures this quiet clearly pointing out the downside of not reaping the demographic dividend. The World Bank, in its "Doing Business Survey" that aims specifically to measure and track changes in regulations affecting 11 areas in the life cycle of a business identified that for starting a business, Nigeria ranked 119 (out of 185); dealing with construction permits, 88; getting electricity, 178; registering property, 182; getting credit, 23; protecting investor, 70; paying taxes, 155; trading across borders, 154; enforcing contracts, 98; and resolving insolvency, 105. Access to finance and infrastructure, especially power continue to cripple young, fledgling businesses and entrepreneurial capacities of Nigerian people.

The ongoing issues in the Niger Delta are equally complex. The problems are clearly too big to handle by one company alone, or even by a consortium of companies. The environmental issues should be addressed  with structured programmes implemented to eliminate the major gas flaring that has been part of the history of oil development in the delta region. Among other things, the success of the massive investments in gas liquefaction projects - the largest investments in Africa needs to be sustained. But the problems of revenue allocation and distribution, questions of law and order, the construction of infrastructure and the tensions between different ethnic groups in relation to electoral and local government areas need proper regional planning and local and national government intervention; probably through the NDDC.

How much can I say about the many burning issues in my heart as I continue to watch with utter dismay as our country continue to witness more bomb blasts. A situation that seems like an insurgency in 2009 in the north-eastern city of Maiduguri with rudimentary bombs and drive-by shootings; men on motorbikes targeted police and clergy has rapidly evolved, with suicide-bombing hitting among other notable places, the UN headquarters in Abuja, the capital, last August, killing 25 people. Suicide-bombings, barely known in west Africa until last year, are now the most potent weapon in many militia's arsenal. Same time last year November 2011 more than 100 people were killed in such bombings as well as in gun attacks. The effect of the insecurity in the country is becoming increasingly pronounced so much so that, even Transcorp Hilton, where in recent years getting a bed there has often been difficult at almost any price because doing business in Africa's most populous country was impossible without setting foot in one of the seven restaurants and bars nestled away in the hotel's two decade-old, concrete hull is witnessing major occupancy decline as as foreign companies have taken their business to Lagos, the commercial capital, and kidnap-prone Port Harcourt in the south. International airlines, who were long among the Hilton's best clients, no longer dare to keep crews in Abuja; British Airways, Lufthansa and Air France now either fly there and back with two crews on board, or have their flight attendants stay in Lagos or Accra, Ghana's capital.

But I know deep within me that a change will come, time will turn for Nigeria. Our MIFFS (middle-income fragile or failed states) profile will change. We will continue to keep close watch with how the $75 per barrel benchmarks feeds into the entire budgetary and allocation system. We will keep our contacts on how the Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) launched in May this year will impact the lives of all Nigerians. We will progressively monitor the SURE-P policy and match their comments and reports with impacts on education and infrastructure and the lives of ordinary people. We will keep up with evidence based policy initiatives through our research and work very hard to see to their appropriate implementation. We will keep our gaze on the demographic transition our country is witnessing and keep hoping it tilts to produce dividends rather than disaster. We need to move away from ethnic lines and connect with one another in sincere honest ways. Development indicators must start to favour us as a nation.  And should I break this down further by adding that we need to develop a learning culture, rather than a copying culture. Our growth will remain unsustainable as long as we fail to understand what the key ingredients of nation building is all about. The patience to learn processes and procedures and the intent to follow due process should improve. We need to develop the capacity to be slow to talk but more to listen and learn. We need to check how things are been done and develop the capacity to learn. Someone recently retorted: "what do we have to learn about the hurricane Sandy and the elections both taking place in the US?" A question I think requires a urgent response. Economic theories and principle may work elsewhere but we need to understand our Nigerian context and develop strategies to implement growth initiatives that will bring about emancipation for all Nigerian people.

The family units in Nigeria must continue to work harder because it still remains the fundamental institution where values are imparted. And I strongly believe this unit is still the only tool for transforming our nation as more empirical evidences are emerging that shows us that we can tackle both the economic outcomes of the young people as well as reduce poverty tremendously if we continue to sustain good family life (Aleshina and Giuliano, 2010; Krishnan, 1996; Lam and Schoeni, 1993). The Economist recently reported that Quamrul Ashraf, David Weil and Joshua Wilde estimated that a decrease in Nigeria’s fertility rate by one child per woman would boost GDP per head by 13% over 20 years, with almost all the gains coming from the “dependency effect” of there being fewer children to look after.

I see Hope in these Primary School Students
I'm Currently working on a Library Project for them

We must continue to show indomitable courage and resilience despite our many challenges.  We must continue to seek knowledge. Our reading culture also needs to improve. I particularly recommend these two books I just finished reading: Son of Hamas and Confession of an Economic Hitman; which both shed light on fundamental issues affecting our nation but with deep spiritual inclination. Our Church model needs an overhaul, we are doing more gathering and less of shinning as our master commands us. Yes Nigeria is the second most religious, but its more than religion. We must shine; in the dark places, not in the already 'lighted' places. We must pray, not for our needs alone, but for a healing for our nation. As I continue to discuss with top academics and scholars about our many issues in Nigeria, trying to gather points of solution and to chart a way forward for our country, many of them propose bloodshed and killings. But I refuse to agree with them. I have come today to re-affirm that prayers can work and it will work for Nigeria. Its a call to prayer and it starts with me, you and everyone of us.  Its a sober time for us all that requires our heart to be open to our creator.

I can't end without saying how grateful I am to God the Father, Jesus his son and the Holy Spirit my teacher, comforter and closest companion. And to my very own, Channon, I love you so very much. Very many thanks to family,  friends and associates and networks. I'm now even more convinced that God has a lot to do with us than ever before. Lets keep on with the master.

References

AfDB ,  OECD ,  UNDP   and UNECA   (2012) : "African Economic Outlook 2012: Promoting Youth Employment",  African Economic Outlook.

Where will the world’s poor live? Global poverty projections for 2020 and 2030 (http://www.ids.ac.uk/files/dmfile/InFocus26-Final2.pdf) ". Institute of Development Studies "Where do the world’s poor live? A new update (http://www.ids.ac.uk/idspublication/where-do-the-world-s-poor-live-a-new-update) ". By Andrew Sumner. Institute of Development Studies

"Horizon 2025 (http://www.odi.org.uk/resources/docs/7723.pdf) ". By Homi Kharas and Andrew Rogerson. Overseas Development Institute 


British Council and Harvard School of Public Health Nigeria The Next Generation Report


Alesina A. and P. Giuliano (2010), The power of the family, J Econ Growth 15:93–125

Krishnan, Pramila   (1996) : "Family Background, Education and Employment in Urban Ethiopia",  Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 58, 167-183.

Lam, D. and Schoeni, R. F. (1993). 'Effects of Family Background on Earnings and Returns to Schooling: Evidence from Brazil', Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 101, No. 4, pp. 711-37.

WIN-Gallup International, Global Index Of Religiosity And Atheism (2012), available <http://www.wingia.com/web/files/news/14/file/14.pdf>, accessed 6/11/2012

Alan Gelb and associates, Oil Windfalls: Blessing or Curse? (Oxford University Press, for the World Bank, New York, etc.. 1988) pp. 357.

Bello, Steven Tairu   (2005) : "A Comparative Analysis of Chinese-Nigerian Economic Reforms and Development Experiences",  China and World Economy, 13, 114-121.

Downie, R., and Cooke J.G., (2011),’ Assessing Risk and Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa’, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Africa Programme (June)

World Development Report 2013

Wrong Family Up-Bringing in Nigeria - Its Long-Run "Negative Y-Index Cost" and Externality

Young Nigerians in the UK

I don’t know if you have received one of those highly forwarded messages with strings of e-mail addresses attached to it? I actually received one of such e-mails recently from an elderly friend titled: “Letter to Nigerian Parents”. Quiet unusual of me, I made effort to read through the entire message whose author remains anonymous; it became the main idea behind this particular writing.

This work starts by lamenting on the idea of not allowing children to have work experience in Nigeria. While many of UK-born, white, English undergraduate go on holiday especially during the summer, they all get jobs to keep themselves running. In fact many of them as early as 18 have become so self-sustaining and ready to leave their parents to begin their own life. These are issues I have experienced through my stay in the UK. The case is otherwise for the Nigerian child who absolutely dependence on parents for food, clothing, housing and shelter. The anonymous writer criticizes this and I share a similar view too.

“I also watched Richard Branson (owner of Virgin Airline) speaking on the Biography Channel and, to my amazement, he said that his young children travel in the economy class -even when the parents (he and his wife) are in upper class. Richard Branson is a billionaire in Pound Sterling. A quick survey would show you that only children from Nigeria fly business or upper class to commence their studies in the UK. No other foreign students do this. There is no aircraft attached to the office of the prime minister in the UK – he travels on BA. And the same goes for the Royals. The Queen does not have an aircraft for her exclusive use…Kate Middleton (lady who married Prince William) drives a VW Golf or something close to it. But there's one core difference [between] them and us (generally speaking). They (even the billionaires among them) work for their money, we steal ours!”

 The anonymous author may sound rather ‘hard’ on his choice of words but he makes absolute sense.

It’s not that parents should hands-off their children affairs but rather, they should tailor it towards them attaining independent economic sustainability in life. Parents in Nigeria, especially the wealthy ones are used to giving their children pocket money that sometimes beat top executive’s salary. Many young people from Nigeria that I have personally met in the UK are living the Jenniffer Lopez, Victoria Beckham, or Parris Hilton kind of lifestyle.

“we have Nigerian children who have never worked for 5 minutes in their lives insisting on flying "only" first or business class, carrying the latest Louis Vuitton ensemble, Victoria 's Secret underwear and wearing Jimmy Choo's, fully paid for by their "loving" parents”

Even the average and middle-class parents are following this trend. You now see many Nigeria campuses flooded with expensive cars driven by young boys and girls who have not worked for five minutes in their lives (the yahoo + syndrome is another issue on its own). Many of them go out with security escorts not because they need them for protection but for someone to be able to carry them into the car when they are overdrunk from parties. What kind of a life is that? And what is the implication of this for our country Nigeria?

First is that it piles up cost for the future. I’ll just call it “negative y-index cost” [i.e. cost to society created by young people which is similar to marginal social cost created by marginal private benefit] emanating from wrong family up-bringing. It leads to a generation, as we are now seeing in our society, that is half-baked academically, physically and mentally. With absolute dependence on parent for livelihood, young adults are liable to become a minus rather than a plus to the nation. While this is the first problem that will emanate from this trend, a second issue is a systemic one that leads to poor productivity in the Nigerian state. So, what happens within the family creates an external, lon-run cost that will be very difficult for us as a nation to recover from if something urgent is not done about this current trend. Space cannot allow me to talk about the poverty we will be carrying on into the future since our competitive value as a nation will drop drastically. This goes first to parents. Spiritual leaders: Pastors and church leaders also have a lot to take home from this. 


Seun Oyeniran.

A copy of the anonymous e-mail "Letter to Nigerian Parents" can be found here