Africans, don't give up on Africa

Although my wife is Canadian because she was born here; her ancestral roots traces back to the West Indies and ultimately Africa. My wife studying history and eventually furthering in Modern Slavery make both of us a team for Africa emancipation. If we're not talking about promoting African values in our Canadian context, we are busy putting the lines together about Africa: the news, reports, economic analysis, the society, environment etc. So when she sent me an email containing a link to the set of pictures below during one of her research, I wasn't at all surprised. The pictures were published on CNN’s Inside Africa website with the caption: “Stunning photos show Africa through African eyes”. The publication was part of the the IBM Research Africa 12 Global Research Lab Project

My wife naturally connected with the stories that followed each picture because of her education and of course the many trips we have made together into Africa and African related attraction around the world. For me, however, I connected with those pictures because I saw myself in them. They told my story.

The house I was born in Mushin Lagos, Nigeria was just across the railway line like this. Since I was born  up till date, I’ve never seen a single train pass through. My parents never stop telling tales of how busy that railway line used to be.	Yet in other places, trains are working. Railway workers strike and others leave the few working ones over crowded like the one seen above.
We fetched water like this. I remember lifting big buckets on my head on very long distances. And you just have to fill up those big drums stored behind the kitchen doors.	Africans are extremely creative. We make something out of nothing. Don’t pity Africa, work with Africa! We have a thriving creative economy, youth bulginess.
Yet we have hope. The future is not ahead, the future is now. When I was a kid we soil ourselves like this young child, telling ourselves we are eating food as we put this dusts on our chin. We have not lost hope. Its this hand-in-soil that has strengthened our creativity.	They say religion has been our bane. But who could I have been if I had not known the Lord Jesus Christ. Because of our faith our communities are built on tenets of respect and love. Its this foundation that allows people like myself to thrive all around the world.
While many people know this young boy made a pair of “glasses”, only very few people knew what he made it of and what the process of making it require. I know because that boy was just exactly like me! we made those funny looking pair of “glasses” out of table-top calendar spine. Creativity is in our DNA! This is Africa!!	This picture passed the strongest message to me. What are we doing to secure the future? Or better still, what am I doing? I see Bill Gates and his earnest effort and I say to myself yes, this is the way to go! We have to secure the health of our future generations.

This is Africa. We are Africans. If we have come this far why go back? Our faith has been strengthened because daily, we face challenges that forces us to exercise them. We have experienced mountain moving faith as we see mountains of poverty and economic hardship sublime. We are hard working and we also believe in honest dealings even though corruption is fast making this assertion an illusion. We have grown because we strengthened our communities by caring for one another in a most unique way. These is Africa, where you can have breakfast, lunch and dinner in the house of three different people you met on the street. We take care of our own, we don’t let one another down. This is the Africa I have grown into from the 1980s into the 2000s. All the evil that has happened in recent times must be be reversed. We will not sit and look at them take away our glorious future. We will reverse it. We will fight it with our words across the diaspora.

We are not where we want to be, yet, we are not where we used to be. The road is still very far. We must not allow idiosyncratic people who have crept into our communities deny us of our glorious destination. We must not fail to connect with our core competences, build on our strength and secure future generations. I personally don’t expect a sudden change but one thing I’m sure of is that: myself and many others who share similar vision will not give up. Africa will arise to take its rightful place among committee of nations. It has already begin to happen, the chart below shows Nigeria is the 3rd fastest growing economy in 2014 and hence a major destination for investment (Wealth Professionals Magazine Issue 2.2 pp8,14). By 2050, global economic dynamics would also have shifted in Africa’s favour. Keep in mind that this are assumptions and pre-included are very high risks factors. If we continue to work on reducing these risk factors: ensure political stability, a stable society, we can exceed these growth estimates by very wide margin.

Its time Africa, We must not give up!

Nigeria in 2014: Concluding Remarks

Although there are numerous challenges facing Nigeria, there are equally huge opportunities to tap into to accelerate growth and development in the country. It is obvious that the greatest opportunity is in the technology industry being the next frontier. IBM is seen to be leading the way followed by Microsoft, Google, Baidu (China’s response to google) and their affiliate partners (Orange, Hauwei, etc) as they explore investments opportunities in Africa. Like many African countries, Nigeria’s demographic prospects are promising, too. As America, Europe and China age, Africa can expect a bulge of workers in their productive prime. Though skills are in short supply, they are becoming more abundant. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, in 2002 only 32% of Africans had secondary or tertiary education, but by 2020, 48% will have. The continent can call on degree-laden expatriates such as Uyi Stewart, the Nigerian chief scientist of IBM’s Nairobi lab. The ability of government, businesses, financial service providers and the Nigerian people in general to positively respond to rising issues and convert challenges to opportunities will go a long way in shaping the Nigerian economy in 2014. Maintaining peace and security is extremely crucial to reap these benefits as this will create a climate friendly for international partnership, investment and sustainable economic growth. As Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and Heckscher-Ohlin identified in their economic postulations, every country should explore in competitive advantage to foster economic growth. Nigeria is blessed with natural resources, competitive distribution system (cutting across Africa and the world in road, airways and seaways network), a cheap workforce (fueled by abundant labour supply), a cultural revolution (with an expanding middle class) and a youth bulginess condition that continue to stimulate domestic demand. 2014 truly holds a lot and it can spell both dividends or doom depending on how we respond to opportunities and challenges as a people.

Read the full article here: 10 Economic Highlights to look out for in Nigeria in 2014. Want to share you thoughts on the Nigerian Economy in 2014? You can drop your comment below or continue the discussion with on twitter Tweet to @seunoyeniran

My 29th Birthday: Reflections on Books, Countries and People that Shaped my Individuality

Toronto Eaton Center (7/11/2013 4pm)

Gazing at the freedom birds inside Eaton Centre on Yonge St, Toronto my imagination is drawn to the magnificence of modern day architecture put to display in Canada's largest mall in downtown Toronto. My last one year has witnessed many travels across continents from Ghana in West Africa to Jamaica in the Caribbean. Yet having two years residence permit in the UK and 10 years entry permit into the United States, my decision to remain in Canada is inadvertently a prove of my acceptance of the country not only because it’s now my country of procreation since my wife is from here but due to the many reasons I will be talking about shortly. I am sure you will be wondering by now that 'this man as really travelled around the world.' Just as you are wondering, I myself am wondering. It amazes me how a boy from a village in Ibadan, Oyo state, Nigeria has eventually pitched a tent over 5500milles away from his origin. This is a short story of my life. Born exactly 29years ago today, I have been shaped by many experiences influenced by people, places, things both seen and unseen and I can be described as one of the product of our truly globalized world.

Of the books and literatures and their authors that have shaped my thinking

Recently read books: Reforming the Unreformable (Okonjo-Iweala),
The Accidental Public Servant (El-Rufai), Son of Hamas (Yossef),
Touching Godliness (KP Yohannan)
Straight Talk to Men, Night Light Devotion for couples,
Complete Marriage and Family Home Reference Guide (Dr, James Dobson)

John Perkins book, Confessions of an Economic Hitman, was an eye opener for me. It showed me the entire corporatocratic ideology that shaped our world pointing clearly how we found ourselves in the global mess in the first place. Although he raised much dust, it’s interesting that all the names mentioned in the books till date couldn’t prove him wrong, everything he wrote about seem true. I give him a lot of credit and continue to follow him on twitter as he preaches the message of "transforming the world into a sustainable, just, and peaceful place where all beings thrive". The Son of Hamas holds both the spiritual account (of Mosab Hassan Yousef) and an historical documentation. It’s a book I do cherish that provides detailed information of the issues in the Middle East between Isreal and Palestine. I have spent a lot of time reading literatures that has strengthened my knowledge of spiritual and family life. K.P. Yohannan's book on Touching Godliness is pristine. My leading author and speaker in family life are Dr. James Dobson and Richard Smalley respectively. In terms of understanding developmental challenges facing growing nations in Africa, I have read the book of people I have come to admire for their work Nasir El-Rufais Accidental Public Servant (I recommend his oral interview session with Graeme Blair and Daniel Scher in Washington DC in 2009 as a first, good read), Dr. Okonjo-Iweala's book on reforming the unreformable is golden to understand the complexity and difficulty of the structural transformation in Nigeria and the depth of corruption the country witnesses. The list still goes on…

Of Nigeria and Her many developmental challenges

A worker at a makeshift production camp in Nigeria’s swamps
processed crude oil at an illegal oil refinery site near the river Nun in Bayelsa.

Many have always referred to Nigeria as giant among nations but taking baby steps. I wonder if Lord Lugard had committed an error in amalgamating the Northern and Southern territories into one Nigeria in 1914. But he couldn't have made a mistake if the people decide to make their case better by working together for a collective growth. Diversity can be a tool for sustainable growth. Toronto for example has been referred to as the world’s most multicultural society and living there for a few months I completely agree with that statement. People come from different walks of life, different countries, to strengthen a system they believed worked for them. I wonder where Nigeria missed it. Growing up in a public high school we learnt both the Surat Al-Fātiĥah and the Lord's prayer and till today people like myself reflect on the glory of those golden good old days. I wonder where Nigeria got her model of divide and rule and the ideology of placing religion and tribal conflict on top of pressing national issues. But I see tremendous hope for the nation. I have two reasons to justify that: one is in the angle of freedom of information and the growth in technology and the second is the hope that the younger generations will get it right. As one of the indicator for technology in a country is the internet, Freedom On The Net 2013 showed Nigeria has fared quiet positively. Although there's is still much to be done, progress recorded so far is good and Nigeria is just at the verge of moving to the freedom domain; many thanks to the tireless efforts of people like Gbenga Sesan, Executive Director, Paradigm Initiative Nigeria. I have hope for the younger generations also. Here is a quote from the 2013 Commonwealth Youth Development Index "A country like Nigeria, for instance, has high teenage pregnancy, low levels of education, high youth unemployment, yet has a higher levels of civic participation than New Zealand. This suggests that although the youths have limited education and employment opportunities, Nigerian youth are looking elsewhere for active engagement". It may not look like a lot but that statement is one of the very few positive feedback Nigeria has gotten in international reports. As a nation, there must be concerted framework (putting together all the policies) that leverage youths capacity in civic participation for nation building. We hope that will be implemented in the future.
We cry against oil theft and vandalism reaching crude oil barrels of between 100,000 (Chatham House) to 250,000 (Nuhu Ribadu Report). We cry against Boko Haram, shedding of blood and the killing of innocent people, we cry against corruption and bribery in Nigeria. I hope it will not be too late for us to see the true price of oil as explained in The Price of Oil Organization report and see a need to pursue economic diversification with earnestness. I hope we will manage diversity for prosperity and ensure inclusivity for all people. And I hope we uphold the dignity of labour.

Of the people who uphold the dignity of labour and whose works are profoundly touching 

Hon. Michael Coteau and myself

Uzma Shakir

Sam Malvea

It’s rare to find people who are committed to your progress and even more rear to find people who work tirelessly to ensure social justice. To the former, I celebrate people who have been with me over the years; my teachers and mentors who despite growing up in their hands have given me the opportunity to exercise leadership and be a man of my own. To the latter, the first is the Ontario Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, Hon. Michael Coteau, whose softspokeness, open door policy and down to earth attitudes makes him someone extremely approachable. I can’t but appreciate my patient teacher and mentor, Sam Malvea who takes extra hours to look into my paper works and ensure I’m doing well. Uzma Shakir remains a symbol of social justice and having heard her speak to me it was clear that her moving from an activist to a role as the Director of Equity, Diversity and Human Rights in the City of Toronto was to ensure that we continue to build an equitable society. Her message of demographic and socio-economic reality of the City of Toronto to her motion on inclusivity remains profound: "When a society is able to care for the less privileged, the women, children and handicapped in particular, then that society would have achieved its entire growth objective because it would have been successful in also taking care of those who already have privileges…"

Of people whose culture of excellence transcends international boundaries: Lamido Sanusi, Obiageli Ezekwsili and many others who are taking their job seriously and creating the culture of excellence both in their official, spiritual or secular lives. And thanks to Cher Jones, my personal brand professor who gave me yet another reason to remain on social media.

Of friends, family and life in general

Myself and Wife's Hand of Love

Although I was dubbed to be a medical doctor, I am now happy tolling the path of an economist which has given me the opportunity to reason rationally, devote thoughts to developmental issues and a desire to want to contribute my own quota to making things better. Some have always concluded that the bane of economics is unrealistic forecasts, but the beauty of being an economist is this same ability to forecast. It allows us to imaginatively predict scenarios and make deductions and recommendations. And when you have a spiritual edge to being an economist its provides an amazing combination, it’s a God plus factor I can’t emphasize enough. It’s a spiritual experience of knowing the truth. This truth shapes thoughts and opinions exactly as demonstrated in people like Martin Luther King.  I'm may be termed religious, but with respect for those who live their lives for other belief, a higher sacrifice, and for a higher purpose than I can ever do myself, I only hope they will find the truth that I now know in Christ Jesus. I'm not white, but I do know it is certainly wrong to judge others by the shade of their skin, the slant of their eyes, the waviness of their hair or the accent in their speech. I'm educated, but I do not disavow others for not having the same opportunities, life situation, or privileges as I. I'm not gay, but I do know that common rights guaranteed to citizens by their representative government should be rights inclusive to all citizens, even as we pray for their change. I am rational enough to realize that although I may not be on the wrong end of injustices, I am empathetic to those who are. I'm not poor, but I do know that it is in our common decency to help our neighbours and our friends when they need it more than us. I live as a social being and grateful for all the good people that surrounds me. Most of all I am grateful that I have friends, family, a wife and a mother who loves me dearly and prays for me constantly. Surely, many great things are bound to unfold in the coming days ahead and we will all have course to celebrate together. Lets keep holding on and believing!

Tweet to @seunoyeniran

My Country, My Heart and My Prayers on My Birthday

Seun Oyeniran

Its been about 11months since I wrote on this blog and its about the same time since I deactivated my Facebook page. Facebook is extremely useful to me so I miss being there a lot and I miss writing on my blog too. However the 11months break was useful because it provided me ample opportunity to look into various other issue beckoning for my attention especially since I returned to Nigeria after my MSc degree in UK (so I didn't regret the social media break at all and I may go on a few more breaks before coming on back finally soon ;). Today is my birthday and I'm reviewing and evaluating how I've spent my 28years in life. Reviewing, yes, but thinking more - becoming more less asleep - and out of my very busy schedule I decide to make some time to scribble out these few lines; first to connect back with all of you my friends; to tell you that I'm well; and to share my heart on various issues that remain pressing since I returned back to my dear country.

Among the thousand and one issues ravaging my mind right now, my dear country, Nigeria, happens to be top on the list. Not only because I am a Nigerian, but because from my little travel across continents, I have come to see and appreciate how beautiful Nigeria is. Through these same trips, my heart has also been remarkably enlightened by the challenges we continue to face as a Nation. This is the core of my burden. I increasingly find it hard to understand how Nigeria's issues have become so terrible. I keep wondering how a country termed by a WIN-Gallup poll as the second most religious country in the World with 93% of the people tagging themselves as believers (second to Ghana at 96%) continue to rank high in corruption and her people continue to witnesses increasing poverty levels like that which has never been seen before. 

Source: http://www.transparency.org/country#NGA

My heart is worried that while many countries transformed the lots of their people, lifting them out of penury through the discovery of oil, this same process has resulted in worse condition for our people. Gelb (1988) in Ismail (2010) IMF working paper WP/10/103 finds that Ecuador, Iran, Nigeria and Trinidad and Tobago went through the Dutch disease, mainly due to a decline in Agriculture, over the first and second oil booms of 1972–81, while Algeria, Indonesia and Venezuela went through a strengthening of their non-oil tradables. Oil will continue to be a problem for Nigeria because the volatility of the supply-price nexus of the commodity in the international market that will continue to result in volatility and instability as Nigeria's economic indices and revenue generation is strongly connected to the export of oil. The need to focus not only on agriculture (through the agricultural transformation agenda), but also on other sectors such as manufacturing and services is now more important in a modern economy where every country has to maximize its comparative advantage in our globalizing world. Even the reforms that worked for countries like China has hit gridlock in Nigeria; our corrupt and ignorant nature being one of the major hinderances. While the Investment Climate and Enterprise Survey carried out by World Bank puts Nigeria in an in-between condition of hope with many underlying issues to be addressed and several reports testifying Nigeria's growth (in fact IMF 2011 Regional Annex estimates 7.4% growth for 2010), yet youth unemployment and lack of jobs sinks down this hope as it public and private sectors are greeted by a demographic progression that continues to elude the knowledge frame of those in positions of authority. Lack of key knowledge of Nigeria's demographic dynamics continue to manifest itself across various policy making institutions across the nation. For example, it has already been established that the causes of instability in certain states such as Nigeria is youth 'bulginess'. A British Council Next Generation report captures this quiet clearly pointing out the downside of not reaping the demographic dividend. The World Bank, in its "Doing Business Survey" that aims specifically to measure and track changes in regulations affecting 11 areas in the life cycle of a business identified that for starting a business, Nigeria ranked 119 (out of 185); dealing with construction permits, 88; getting electricity, 178; registering property, 182; getting credit, 23; protecting investor, 70; paying taxes, 155; trading across borders, 154; enforcing contracts, 98; and resolving insolvency, 105. Access to finance and infrastructure, especially power continue to cripple young, fledgling businesses and entrepreneurial capacities of Nigerian people.

The ongoing issues in the Niger Delta are equally complex. The problems are clearly too big to handle by one company alone, or even by a consortium of companies. The environmental issues should be addressed  with structured programmes implemented to eliminate the major gas flaring that has been part of the history of oil development in the delta region. Among other things, the success of the massive investments in gas liquefaction projects - the largest investments in Africa needs to be sustained. But the problems of revenue allocation and distribution, questions of law and order, the construction of infrastructure and the tensions between different ethnic groups in relation to electoral and local government areas need proper regional planning and local and national government intervention; probably through the NDDC.

How much can I say about the many burning issues in my heart as I continue to watch with utter dismay as our country continue to witness more bomb blasts. A situation that seems like an insurgency in 2009 in the north-eastern city of Maiduguri with rudimentary bombs and drive-by shootings; men on motorbikes targeted police and clergy has rapidly evolved, with suicide-bombing hitting among other notable places, the UN headquarters in Abuja, the capital, last August, killing 25 people. Suicide-bombings, barely known in west Africa until last year, are now the most potent weapon in many militia's arsenal. Same time last year November 2011 more than 100 people were killed in such bombings as well as in gun attacks. The effect of the insecurity in the country is becoming increasingly pronounced so much so that, even Transcorp Hilton, where in recent years getting a bed there has often been difficult at almost any price because doing business in Africa's most populous country was impossible without setting foot in one of the seven restaurants and bars nestled away in the hotel's two decade-old, concrete hull is witnessing major occupancy decline as as foreign companies have taken their business to Lagos, the commercial capital, and kidnap-prone Port Harcourt in the south. International airlines, who were long among the Hilton's best clients, no longer dare to keep crews in Abuja; British Airways, Lufthansa and Air France now either fly there and back with two crews on board, or have their flight attendants stay in Lagos or Accra, Ghana's capital.

But I know deep within me that a change will come, time will turn for Nigeria. Our MIFFS (middle-income fragile or failed states) profile will change. We will continue to keep close watch with how the $75 per barrel benchmarks feeds into the entire budgetary and allocation system. We will keep our contacts on how the Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) launched in May this year will impact the lives of all Nigerians. We will progressively monitor the SURE-P policy and match their comments and reports with impacts on education and infrastructure and the lives of ordinary people. We will keep up with evidence based policy initiatives through our research and work very hard to see to their appropriate implementation. We will keep our gaze on the demographic transition our country is witnessing and keep hoping it tilts to produce dividends rather than disaster. We need to move away from ethnic lines and connect with one another in sincere honest ways. Development indicators must start to favour us as a nation.  And should I break this down further by adding that we need to develop a learning culture, rather than a copying culture. Our growth will remain unsustainable as long as we fail to understand what the key ingredients of nation building is all about. The patience to learn processes and procedures and the intent to follow due process should improve. We need to develop the capacity to be slow to talk but more to listen and learn. We need to check how things are been done and develop the capacity to learn. Someone recently retorted: "what do we have to learn about the hurricane Sandy and the elections both taking place in the US?" A question I think requires a urgent response. Economic theories and principle may work elsewhere but we need to understand our Nigerian context and develop strategies to implement growth initiatives that will bring about emancipation for all Nigerian people.

The family units in Nigeria must continue to work harder because it still remains the fundamental institution where values are imparted. And I strongly believe this unit is still the only tool for transforming our nation as more empirical evidences are emerging that shows us that we can tackle both the economic outcomes of the young people as well as reduce poverty tremendously if we continue to sustain good family life (Aleshina and Giuliano, 2010; Krishnan, 1996; Lam and Schoeni, 1993). The Economist recently reported that Quamrul Ashraf, David Weil and Joshua Wilde estimated that a decrease in Nigeria’s fertility rate by one child per woman would boost GDP per head by 13% over 20 years, with almost all the gains coming from the “dependency effect” of there being fewer children to look after.

I see Hope in these Primary School Students
I'm Currently working on a Library Project for them

We must continue to show indomitable courage and resilience despite our many challenges.  We must continue to seek knowledge. Our reading culture also needs to improve. I particularly recommend these two books I just finished reading: Son of Hamas and Confession of an Economic Hitman; which both shed light on fundamental issues affecting our nation but with deep spiritual inclination. Our Church model needs an overhaul, we are doing more gathering and less of shinning as our master commands us. Yes Nigeria is the second most religious, but its more than religion. We must shine; in the dark places, not in the already 'lighted' places. We must pray, not for our needs alone, but for a healing for our nation. As I continue to discuss with top academics and scholars about our many issues in Nigeria, trying to gather points of solution and to chart a way forward for our country, many of them propose bloodshed and killings. But I refuse to agree with them. I have come today to re-affirm that prayers can work and it will work for Nigeria. Its a call to prayer and it starts with me, you and everyone of us.  Its a sober time for us all that requires our heart to be open to our creator.

I can't end without saying how grateful I am to God the Father, Jesus his son and the Holy Spirit my teacher, comforter and closest companion. And to my very own, Channon, I love you so very much. Very many thanks to family,  friends and associates and networks. I'm now even more convinced that God has a lot to do with us than ever before. Lets keep on with the master.

References

AfDB ,  OECD ,  UNDP   and UNECA   (2012) : "African Economic Outlook 2012: Promoting Youth Employment",  African Economic Outlook.

Where will the world’s poor live? Global poverty projections for 2020 and 2030 (http://www.ids.ac.uk/files/dmfile/InFocus26-Final2.pdf) ". Institute of Development Studies "Where do the world’s poor live? A new update (http://www.ids.ac.uk/idspublication/where-do-the-world-s-poor-live-a-new-update) ". By Andrew Sumner. Institute of Development Studies

"Horizon 2025 (http://www.odi.org.uk/resources/docs/7723.pdf) ". By Homi Kharas and Andrew Rogerson. Overseas Development Institute 


British Council and Harvard School of Public Health Nigeria The Next Generation Report


Alesina A. and P. Giuliano (2010), The power of the family, J Econ Growth 15:93–125

Krishnan, Pramila   (1996) : "Family Background, Education and Employment in Urban Ethiopia",  Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 58, 167-183.

Lam, D. and Schoeni, R. F. (1993). 'Effects of Family Background on Earnings and Returns to Schooling: Evidence from Brazil', Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 101, No. 4, pp. 711-37.

WIN-Gallup International, Global Index Of Religiosity And Atheism (2012), available <http://www.wingia.com/web/files/news/14/file/14.pdf>, accessed 6/11/2012

Alan Gelb and associates, Oil Windfalls: Blessing or Curse? (Oxford University Press, for the World Bank, New York, etc.. 1988) pp. 357.

Bello, Steven Tairu   (2005) : "A Comparative Analysis of Chinese-Nigerian Economic Reforms and Development Experiences",  China and World Economy, 13, 114-121.

Downie, R., and Cooke J.G., (2011),’ Assessing Risk and Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa’, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Africa Programme (June)

World Development Report 2013